TOPEKA - Gun rights advocates think 2004 will be the year they can remove the state's ban on carrying concealed weapons.

But they must overcome opposition from the governor's office, a political feat they were unable to accomplish in 1997 and 1999.

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, like her predecessor, Bill Graves, opposes granting permits to most citizens for concealed handguns and other weapons. She supports allowing retired law enforcement officers to carry.

"That's where she stops," said her spokeswoman, Nicole Corcoran.

Political momentum toward allowing concealed guns is unmistakable.

Kansas is one of only five states that has no law allowing concealed guns. Missouri's new law allowing concealed guns had been scheduled to take effect Saturday until a judge delayed it late Friday. Missouri lawmakers overrode Gov. Bob Holden's veto of the law in September, even though voters rejected a concealed gun law four years ago.

Missouri's action "helped tremendously in that it brought the issue back before the public," said Wichita lawyer Phil Journey, president of the Kansas State Rifle Association.

He's not convinced a concealed gun law would draw an automatic veto from Sebelius.

"Depends on how the thing's drafted," he said. "She might go for something. "

Thirty-four states allow residents to carry concealed weapons after passing a background check and taking safety training. Nine others have laws that gun rights advocates say give police too much discretion to deny permits.

Vermont and Alaska state laws do not address concealed weapons and therefore place no restrictions on gun owners.

Gun control advocates think they can buck the trend, though.

"Inevitably, if you pass a bill like this, there's going to be a significant increase in handgun sales and, therefore, firearms in public places," said Kelly Johnston, chairman of Safe State Kansas, which opposes a law allowing concealed weapons.

He noted that the last time Wichitans voted on guns, in 1994, 58 percent favored retaining the city's gun control ordinance, which prohibits people who have been convicted of crimes involving alcohol, drugs, hate crimes or domestic violence from purchasing firearms.

Feedback from all sides

If past debates on the issue are any guide, Kansas lawmakers will hear emotional pleas from advocates on both sides -- those who have used guns to defend themselves and those who have lost family members to gun violence.

They also will hear conflicting research.

John Lott, a former University of Chicago professor now with the American Enterprise Institute, became nationally known in the 1990s for research he says shows that allowing concealed weapons reduces crime.

He has published two versions of his book, "More Guns, Less Crime," and recently authored a book titled "The Bias Against Guns."

"There just haven't been bad experiences," he said in an interview.

He cites Texas, where the state Department of Public Safety reported that in 2001, only half of 1 percent of crimes against people -- murder, assault, robbery and others -- were committed by people who had permits to carry guns.

"It's just very hard to find cases where permit holders do anything wrong, particularly anything wrong with a gun," Lott said.

Among his most vocal academic critics is John Donohue, a Stanford University law professor whose published critiques of Lott's works cite errors in handling crime data.

"It's abundantly clear that there is no support for his thesis," Donohue said. "It borders on fraud for anyone to try to make the case that there is a drop in crime."

He said Lott's earlier work failed to account for the peak and subsequent decline in violent crime related to the advent of crack cocaine in the 1980s and said later updates had coding errors.

The police opinion

Kansas law enforcement personnel have not been able to sort out the issue for lawmakers.

Rank-and-file officers have tended to support concealed gun permits, which in most states require a criminal background check and completion of a gun safety course.

"We don't feel like those people that will qualify will be a danger to us," said Ken Gorman, legislative chairman for the Fraternal Order of Police, Kansas State Lodge.

Now retired, Gorman said he saw many instances during his 28 years with the Topeka Police Department where citizens were able to protect themselves because they were armed.

Police chiefs and other top-level law enforcement officers have generally opposed gun permits. That remains the official position of the Kansas Association of Chiefs of Police, at least until the group meets this week to discuss legislative policies.

Noting that "it's a pretty emotional issue," Salina Police Chief James Hill declined to say how he personally felt about a gun permit law.

"We respect and enforce the law," said Hill, who is at the end of his term as president of the chiefs' association.

Wichita Police Chief Norman Williams and Sedgwick County Sheriff Gary Steed did not return telephone messages about the issue.

In 1999, the last time Kansas lawmakers considered a concealed gun bill, a Wichita deputy chief testified against the bill. It passed the House but died in a Senate committee.

Many political observers said the Republican leadership wanted to avoid the prospect of a second veto by then-Gov. Graves.

Two years earlier, he vetoed a bill that cleared both chambers. Lawmakers made no attempt to override his action.

The Legislature has seen plenty of turnover since 1999 and is still considered to lean toward approval of concealed weapons, though not necessarily by a veto-proof margin.

The 1999 effort was led by female lawmakers, which is likely to be the case again in 2004, said Rep. Candy Ruff, a Leavenworth Democrat whose district borders Missouri.

"It has to do with the Second Amendment, and women being able to protect themselves," she said.

Opponents, however, say a concealed gun law is not a done deal.

If the objective is to prevent crime, "We already have the authority to carry weapons in the open, so I don't know why the law needs to change," said Sen. John Vratil of Leawood, chairman of the Senate Judiciary committee.

State law permits residents to carry a gun in plain sight or to keep one in a gun rack in a vehicle.

Cities may impose tighter restrictions. For example, in Wichita, it is illegal to carry a loaded firearm in public. It is also unlawful to carry an air rifle, pellet gun or BB gun.

A key issue for gun supporters is state pre-emption of local gun laws. Without that, Journey said, gun owners would not know whether they were violating the law as they traveled through different towns.

"We've probably got 400 sets of rules in Kansas," he said.

Wichita and other cities have fought to preserve their own laws.

As a state representative, Wichita Mayor Carlos Mayans consistently voted to allow concealed guns and to pre-empt local laws. He refused to say last week whether he still supports that position.

Journey is optimistic the law will pass, despite last year's election of a governor who is opposed. He first started pushing the issue at the state level in the 1993 session.

"It's like chipping at a wall. Sooner or later, you're on the other side," he said.