Nov. 6 Neal Knox Update -- The Republicans won a huge victory in yesterday's elections.  I'm not yet sure if gunowners did, but I think so.

     NRA Federal Division Director Chuck Cunningham reports a net gain of two Senate pro-gun votes (with South Dakota still uncertain) and at least an 11-gain net increase in the House.

     In an early-morning report to NRA Directors and others Chuck noted that four of the five Senate candidates on Handgun Control Inc.'s "Dangerous Dozen" won, as did two of the three House candidates on their list.

     We'll probably have more votes in January -- though we'll sorely feel the loss of leaders like Sens. Bob Smith and Jesse Helms, Reps. Bob Barr and George Gekas (R-Pa.) (defeated yesterday).

     It would have been a brutal two years if about 1.5 percent of the electorate had gone the other way.

     That might have happened if it hadn't been for the unprecedented campaigning by President Bush, which clearly triggered the Republican "sweep" and prevented the historical heavy losses of a President's party during the first off-year election.

     While I give Mr. Bush high marks for stumping for candidates all over the country, it amazed me that he did nothing to help pro-gun candidate Ramsey Farley, who was valiantly challenging the President's own Democrat Congressman -- anti-gun Rep. Chet Edwards, who won by only 6,000 votes, 52-47%.  As I tried to convince the White House, a 3-minute "grip and grin" photo op while the Prez was flying in or out of Waco airport or Gray Army Airfield at Ft. Hood -- both in the 11th District -- could have made the difference.

     By taking control of the Senate with at least 51 seats, and possibly putting Trent Lott back into the Leader's chair (though Don Nickles of Oklahoma may challenge him), much of the President's agenda, and some of his judge nominations, will go forward.  But there will be brutal battles over any Supreme Court or Appellate Court nominee who is a known defender of gun rights.

     By assuredly doing better than another 50-50 split, there will be absolutely no more hints from anti-gun Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) about "pulling a Jeffords" and restoring control to the Democrats.

     It takes 60 votes to shut off a Senate "filibuster," but Republicans don't have that many votes -- and gunowners sure don't.

     Frank Lautenberg will be back, but a lot has changed (even if most of the players haven't) since the Senate passed his gun show-killer amendment in 1999.

     The improved Senate after January means that the lame duck session beginning next Tuesday will probably be relatively uneventful.  A month ago Majority Leader Tom Daschle said if Republicans win, his Democrats would go into stall mode to block "being steamrolled" by Republicans during the lame duck -- and next session.

     Narrowly ahead Jim Talent (R-Mo.) could be seated during the lame duck, but probably won't be because Democrat Gov. Bob Holden is unlikely to certify his election over Sen. Jean Carnahan until after the session's over.  She's reliably anti-gun, even if she did go skeet shooting during the campaign.

     Gov. Jesse Ventura's appointee for the lame duck session, Dean Barkley, will replace the late Sen. Paul Wellstone until former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman is seated.  I don't know Barkley's position on guns.  NRA rated Coleman as an "A," which may be a bit generous, but former Vice President and Sen. Walter Mondale was an assured "F."

     Bottom line:  I don't expect any gun legislation to come out during the lame duck except the House-passed Sensenbrenner "improvements" to the National Instant Check system, which offers funds to states to create databases of persons involuntarily committed to mental institutuions and those convicted of domestic violence misdemeanors.

     What Judiciary Chairman Jim Sensenbrenner's rewritten McCarthy-Schumer bill did was better define what kind of institutionalization and domestic violence misdemeanors would disqualify gun ownership, and allow states to expunge those records to restore gun rights.  Sen. Charles Schumer will probably object to those improvements, unless he thinks changing the House's "unanimous consent" bill, sending it to a conference committee, would kill it.

     With almost all the appropriations bills yet to be passed (some ripe for anti-gun amendments), the most likely outcome of the "lame duck" will be a catch-all continuing resolution designed to keep the government running until the Republican Congress takes over.  President Bush is unlikely to get the provisions he wants on the Homeland Security reorganization and other parts of his agenda, so they will probably be put on hold until January.

     The most significant item in the House results was how well the legislatures' redistricting protected incumbents.  In most cases, incumbents in contested races won by 2-1 margins.

     We did note with satisfaction that despite minimal NRA help, pro-gun stalwart Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) withstood a fierce challenge from anti-gun Bryan Hartke.  And in a second matchup, A-rated John Kline took out F-rated Rep. Bill Luther (D-Wis.)

     But redistricting knocked out opponents, too -- like pro-gun Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Tex.), and my former Congresswoman, Rep. Connie Morella (R-Md.), who was out-anti-gunned by newly elected Chris Van Hollen.

     "Guns" were a major issue in only a few campaigns, including the Maryland Governor's race, where Rep. Bob Ehrlich -- another on the Brady Bunch's "Dirty Dozen" list, beat Sen. Bobby Kennedy's daughter, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, despite help from Sen. Ted Kennedy and other family members -- and an overwhelmingly Democrat registration in the state.  Amazing.

     However, Maryland House of Delegates Speaker Cap Taylor, who hails from the pro-gun western end of the state, and always claimed to support gun rights, was narrowly defeated -- largely for his work in pushing through outgoing Gov. Parris Glendening's series of new anti-gun laws.  Del. Kevin Kelly, another Democrat from the same rural county, but who has always been a gun rights stalwart, won easily.

     I was also delighted to see old friend and former Texas Senator Jerry Patterson -- original author of the Texas concealed carry law -- win the powerful Texas Land Commissioner post.

     Former Land Commissioner David Dewhurst -- strongly supported by friend Rep. Suzanna Gratia Hupp -- was elected Lt. Governor, the office that largely controls the Texas legislature.  NRA and Texas State Rifle Association were neutral in the race between him and John Sharp (a gun rights advocate even if he is a Liberal Democrat) but David had told gunowners that he would support our agenda -- which should mean further improvements in the Texas family-protection carry law.

     Son Jeff Knox lost his Washington State campaign to take out  a three-term anti-gun incumbent Representative.  Without any funding from the Republican party (but with help from NRA), he took 43.5% of the vote -- better than any Republican in that heavily Democratic Spokane race in decades.

     I'm proud of him.  He would have made a tremendous difference in the state legislature.  And he may yet, for bull-headedness runs in the family.

     Except for Jeff's race, and a few others, I'm infinitely relieved about the way this election turned out.  After Sen. Bob Torricelli was forced out of a near-certain loss to Doug Forrester in New Jersey, then Sen. Paul Wellstone and his wife were killed in a plane crash and Minnesota icon "Fritz" Mondale replaced him, this election was looking as ugly as ten miles of muddy road.

                 

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